AAA Today

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When hurricane season arrives, consumers and many reporters understandably ask, “How high can the gas prices go?” There’s no simple answer, but it’s important to note that while hurricanes can diminish access to the available fuel supply, they also significantly diminish demand, too.

While the severity of any storm can have a substantial impact on gasoline prices—as we saw with Katrina (see below), where fuel prices in Florida were up 35 cents per gallon 2 weeks after its arrival—other factors drive prices that often have little to do with a hurricane’s effects.

In August 2008, when Gustav hit the Florida Keys, the storm’s damage did not register anything close to the severity of Katrina. Retail gasoline prices increased only slightly after Gustav struck, and shortly after, they plummeted more than $2 per gallon from Gustav’s arrival (Aug. 31) until the last day of the year, reflecting the severity of the recession more than anything the hurricane delivered.

The data below reflects the U.S. and Florida state average price of unleaded regular gasoline before and after three recent hurricanes:

Sept. 16, ‘04      Ivan does severe damage to I-10 bridge in Pensacola

U.S.:     Week before: $1.84; Day after: $1.84; 2 weeks later: $1.92                       

FL:       Week before: $1.85; Day after: $1.86; 2 weeks later: $1.94

Aug. 25, ‘05       Katrina makes landfall at the Broward/Miami-Dade border

U.S.:     Week before: $2.58; Day after: $2.60; 2 weeks later: $3.04

FL :      Week before: $2.59; Day after: $2.63; 2 weeks later: $2.98

Aug. 31, ‘08       Gustav hits the FL Keys

U.S.:     Week before: $3.68; Day after: $3.68; 2 weeks later: $3.73

FL:       Week before: $3.68; Day after: $3.69; 2 weeks later: $3.73

During a storm, the important thing for all motorists is to keep informed on road conditions and fuel availability, drive as little as possible, and don’t let rumors guide you. Stick with reliable local news sources. And for your own peace of mind, stay calm! I’m sure that most of you can recall instances where false rumors that entire towns were out of gasoline caused needless panic that resulted in people filling up their tanks unnecessarily….Do you remember?